How to Use Strategic Foresight in Uncertain Times

The further ahead an organization looks, the less it can rely on historical data alone. Changes in technology, regulation, customer behavior, geopolitics, and other external forces make long-term outcomes increasingly uncertain.

In Valona’s webinar, How to Use Foresight and Forecasting, strategic foresight specialist Sakari Nisula explained how organizations can combine forecasting with foresight methods to prepare for changes they cannot reliably predict.

This article summarizes five practical lessons from the discussion:

• look beyond historical forecasts as uncertainty increases
• scan broadly for early signs of change
• create scenarios that challenge current assumptions
• define a preferred future and work backward from it
• examine interactions and use diverse expert perspectives

New to the topic? Read our practical guide to strategic foresight to understand its purpose, business value, and role in organizational decision-making.

Why forecasting becomes less reliable over time

Forecasting remains valuable when conditions are relatively stable and historical data provides a reliable basis for estimating what is likely to happen. As the time horizon extends, however, changes in technology, regulation, consumer behavior, geopolitics, and other external forces increase uncertainty.

As strategic foresight specialist Sakari Nisula explained during the webinar:

“Foresight requires a long enough timeframe—typically five to ten years or even more—to allow transformational change to happen. As we look further ahead, uncertainty increases and predetermination decreases.”

Forecasting is most effective when the factors shaping an outcome are constrained or reasonably predictable. Over longer periods, those constraints weaken and the number of possible influences grows. Historical and statistical data can show how conditions have developed, but they cannot account fully for discontinuities, emerging issues, or events without a meaningful precedent.

Strategic foresight complements forecasting by helping organizations explore what could happen, not only what available data suggests is most likely to happen. It uses structured methods to challenge assumptions, examine possible changes, and develop strategies that remain useful across different future conditions.

The objective is not to replace forecasting or predict every disruption. It is to recognize where prediction becomes unreliable and prepare the organization to make decisions despite that uncertainty.

“The proper response to radical change is not to redouble our efforts to predict an unknowable future, but to develop strategies that are robust and resilient to events which we cannot anticipate.”

— Sakari Nisula

Five strategic foresight methods for navigating uncertainty

During the webinar, Sakari Nisula highlighted five strategic foresight methods that help organizations make better decisions in uncertain and rapidly changing environments. Rather than relying on a single forecast, these approaches help leaders explore multiple perspectives, identify weak signals, and prepare for different possible futures.

1. Horizon scanning: detecting signals before they become obvious

Horizon scanning is a structured way of identifying early signals of change before they develop into clear market trends. It goes beyond traditional market research by looking across industries and macro-environmental domains such as technology, politics, society, economics, and regulation.

The goal is not to collect more information, but to recognize patterns that may indicate emerging shifts.

As Nisula noted in the webinar, “Change rarely emerges from within an industry alone. Disruptive trends, emerging technologies, and shifting societal values often originate from broader external forces.”

Horizon scanning is especially valuable when organizations need to anticipate developments such as geopolitical shifts, technological breakthroughs, regulatory change, or evolving customer expectations.

2. Scenario planning: preparing for multiple possible futures

Scenario planning helps organizations move beyond a single forecast by developing several plausible future environments. Instead of predicting what will happen, it explores what could happen under different conditions.

The purpose is to test assumptions, stress current strategies, and build resilience across multiple potential futures.

Effective scenario planning typically focuses on a small number of critical uncertainties and uses them to construct distinct, meaningful future contexts.

As Nisula emphasized: “Scenarios should be different, impactful, and even provocative.”

3. Backcasting: working backward from a preferred future

Backcasting starts with a clearly defined desired future and works backward to identify the steps required to reach it. This makes it especially useful for long-term transformation efforts such as sustainability, digital transformation, or strategic repositioning.

Rather than reacting to change, backcasting helps organizations actively shape it.

Nisula highlighted a common gap in practice: “Companies are building scenarios, but often spend too little time defining their preferred future and what needs to happen to get there.”

Backcasting ensures that short-term decisions remain aligned with long-term strategic intent.

4. Cross-impact analysis: understanding how trends interact

Most organizations track trends individually, but real-world change is rarely isolated. Cross-impact analysis examines how trends influence one another and create combined effects.

A technological shift may trigger regulatory responses, which then influence consumer behavior and reshape entire markets. Understanding these interactions helps organizations anticipate second-order effects and systemic change.

This method is particularly useful for identifying reinforcing dynamics, conflicts between trends, and emerging disruption clusters.

5. Delphi method: structured expert insight

The Delphi method gathers expert judgment through multiple rounds of anonymous feedback. Participants refine their views based on group input, without direct influence from dominant voices or hierarchy.

This structured process helps reduce bias and surface more balanced insights in areas where data is limited or uncertainty is high.

It is especially useful for exploring long-term developments, emerging technologies, and complex strategic questions where expert interpretation is essential.

These methods are most powerful when used together. Horizon scanning identifies signals, scenario planning explores possible futures, backcasting defines direction, cross-impact analysis reveals system dynamics, and the Delphi method strengthens judgment in uncertain areas.

Together, they help organizations move from reacting to change toward actively shaping their future.

For definitions and a side-by-side comparison of the different approaches, read Strategic Foresight Methodology Explained.

Turning foresight into better decisions

Understanding foresight methods is only the starting point. Their value depends on whether the resulting insights influence decisions about investment, innovation, risk, capabilities, and strategic priorities.

As Nisula explained during the webinar: “Foresight is not done for its own sake, but for making better business decisions about the future.”

Organizations do not need to introduce every method at once. A practical starting point is to identify an important decision, select the method best suited to that question, and involve people with relevant but different perspectives.

Several principles help connect foresight to action:

• Start with a decision. Define the strategic choice or uncertainty the work needs to inform.
• Select methods deliberately. Choose an approach based on the question rather than applying a familiar method to every situation.
• Include diverse perspectives. Involve people from different functions, markets, and areas of expertise to challenge established assumptions.
• Translate findings into implications. Explain what the insights mean for priorities, investments, risks, and opportunities.
• Revisit the findings. Monitor how conditions change and update assumptions, scenarios, and actions accordingly.

Foresight does not eliminate uncertainty. It gives decision-makers a structured way to examine it, prepare for different possibilities, and act without waiting for complete certainty.

Explore strategic foresight methods and tools

Horizon scanning, scenario planning, backcasting, cross-impact analysis, and the Delphi method address different kinds of uncertainty. Organizations can use them individually or combine them as part of a wider foresight process.

For definitions, comparisons, and guidance on choosing an approach, read Strategic Foresight Methodology Explained.

Valona helps organizations continuously monitor external change, identify emerging signals, and communicate relevant developments through tools such as trend radars, dashboards, alerts, and newsletters.

Explore Valona’s market intelligence platform or schedule a demonstration to see how continuous monitoring can support your foresight process.